The special elections to fill the US House seats vacated by former Representatives Matt Gaetz and Mike Waltz will begin with primaries on Tuesday. These elections are taking place in conservative districts that strongly support former President Donald Trump.
The first race is in Florida’s 1st Congressional District, which was previously represented by Gaetz. Gaetz announced he would not return to Congress after withdrawing from consideration to be Trump’s attorney general due to allegations of sexual misconduct.
The second race is for Florida’s 6th Congressional District, which includes areas south of Jacksonville and Daytona Beach. This seat was held by Waltz, who now serves as Trump’s national security adviser, a position that does not require Senate confirmation.
Republicans are expected to retain both seats, which would restore their narrow 220-215 majority in the US House. However, the implementation of Trump’s agenda could be delayed as Congress awaits the general elections, scheduled for April 1.
Here are the key details about Tuesday’s special elections:
Trump’s Endorsed Candidates
1st District: Trump has endorsed Jimmy Patronis, Florida’s Chief Financial Officer and a former state lawmaker from Panama City. Patronis is a well-known figure in Florida politics and a longtime ally of Senator Rick Scott.
6th District: Trump is backing Randy Fine, a state senator known for his strong support of Israel and efforts to restrict LGBTQ+ rights. Fine has recently criticized Florida Governor Ron DeSantis for not doing enough to combat antisemitism.
Republican Challengers
1st District: Joel Rudman, a former state representative and doctor, is challenging Patronis. Rudman gained prominence by criticizing mask mandates during the COVID-19 pandemic.
6th District: Fine faces competition from Aaron Baker of Sorrento and Ehsan Joarder of Brooksville, a self-described “young entrepreneur.”
Democratic Candidates
1st District: Gay Valimont, an activist with Moms Demand Action, is running again after losing to Gaetz in the previous election with only 34% of the vote.
6th District: Two Democrats are running for Waltz’s seat: Josh Weil, an Orlando-area teacher, and Ges Selmont, a businessman from Elkton. Selmont previously ran for Congress in Florida’s 4th District in 2018.
What Experts Are Watching
Political scientist Aubrey Jewett from the University of Central Florida says that Republican primary winners are likely to have an advantage in both districts. Fine and Patronis already have high name recognition, even before Trump’s endorsement. However, both have faced criticism for not living in the districts they hope to represent. Jewett believes the race for Gaetz’s seat could be particularly competitive.
In a low-turnout scenario, Democrats might be able to make gains, as seen in recent special elections. However, Jewett notes that it would take a “small miracle” for Democrats to win Waltz’s seat, and a “very large miracle” to win Gaetz’s seat.
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